Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 2.119581 2.247425 2.382173 2.535332 2.705269 2.888833 3.103175
2025-08-24 1.913493 2.086788 2.278261 2.507415 2.776803 3.086786 3.475505
2025-08-31 1.795458 1.996121 2.225226 2.509783 2.859045 3.281195 3.842308
2025-09-07 1.714016 1.934880 2.193773 2.525299 2.947351 3.479930 4.226441
2025-09-14 1.622850 1.852866 2.127863 2.488342 2.960581 3.577533 4.481527
2025-09-21 1.544486 1.780076 2.066429 2.449327 2.963531 3.656297 4.713380
2025-09-28 1.472551 1.710445 2.003603 2.402233 2.949077 3.705939 4.903761
2025-10-05 1.444347 1.693435 2.005528 2.438705 3.048887 3.922845 5.373740
2025-10-12 1.420397 1.679942 2.010253 2.477778 3.153500 4.154882 5.901229
2025-10-19 1.395094 1.662985 2.008759 2.507026 3.244648 4.373881 6.441297
2025-10-26 1.356516 1.626629 1.979042 2.493946 3.270637 4.490968 6.816514
2025-11-02 1.320615 1.592198 1.950045 2.479634 3.292675 4.602220 7.197982
2025-11-09 1.282178 1.553484 1.914194 2.454344 3.297292 4.687230 7.549713
2025-11-16 1.245712 1.516132 1.878651 2.427479 3.297234 4.763812 7.899307
2025-11-23 1.221196 1.494061 1.863386 2.429710 3.343656 4.926774 8.471986
2025-11-30 1.202225 1.478790 1.856867 2.444423 3.411092 5.134955 9.200765
2025-12-07 1.169265 1.442983 1.819455 2.409371 3.391674 5.176039 9.529568
2025-12-14 1.137559 1.407983 1.781962 2.372351 3.366241 5.202537 9.827790
2025-12-21 1.105244 1.371248 1.740753 2.327637 3.324548 5.192575 10.026658
2025-12-28 1.097401 1.368734 1.749384 2.362268 3.424749 5.481276 11.155821
2026-01-04 1.090582 1.367335 1.759409 2.399350 3.531868 5.798953 12.506006
2026-01-11 1.081507 1.362340 1.763733 2.427094 3.623707 6.096619 13.937015
2026-01-18 1.062368 1.342234 1.744516 2.414688 3.638696 6.222101 14.813010